Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 200.13 | SELL ALL | 200.13 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 160.61 (-19.7%) | NVIDIA fell 3.2% to 200.13 as the chip sell-off resumed after the midterm sweep, giving back the prior day's bounce; it is well under its 224.76 stop and back below its 200-day average, and the model now prints SELL - REDUCE on a 20-day breakdown, so the full exit stands. The 12-week view (160.61) is about 20% below the price. Re-issue of the unfilled 11-03 card (fourth issue), repriced from 206.69; replaces it (no stacking). Q2/S2: written stop/EMA200 line fired 10-30, both legs breached (-3.48 ATR / -1.11 ATR); basis strengthened (V1 withdraw clause not met). Engine REDUCE 53.64% is subsumed by the full exit. at the 11-05 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1496.30 | SELL ALL | 1496.30 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1092.18 (-27.0%) | ASML dropped 3.6% to 1,496.30, deeper under its 1,651.25 stop and its 200-day average on a sixteenth zero-conviction NO TRADE print, so the unfilled full exit is re-issued. News confirms: the hardware/chip rout widened on AI-financing worries and the midterm reaction. Re-issue of the 11-03 card, repriced from 1,552.14; replaces it (no stacking). V1: basis strengthened (-2.29 ATR vs -1.50). at the 11-05 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -vs cost 1,826.98. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 395.75 | SELL ALL | 395.75 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 322.15 (-18.6%) | TSMC fell 2.2% to 395.75 and lost its 200-day average again, still well under the 435.16 stop on a fifth zero-conviction NO TRADE print with a negative 12-week view (322.15), so the full exit stands. Sector news confirms the weakness; no override. Re-issue of the 11-03 card, repriced from 404.80; replaces it (no stacking). L2 basis (stop break -2.55 ATR + negative 12wk) intact; EMA200 leg re-breached (-0.28 ATR). T5: is the full-exit rounding. at the 11-05 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 435.16. Realized about -vs cost 438.02. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
103 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.