Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 225.31 | SELL ALL | 225.31 | 238.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 272.53 (+21.0%) | Salesforce closed lower again at 225.31, 5.4% under its stop and through the pre-set 228.98 hard-exit line for a second session, and the signal has dropped to no-trade; with no company-specific catalyst behind the slide, the risk line is honoured and the full position is sold. OPERATIONAL: RE-FIRE of the 2026-09-29 SELL card, which never reached the executor because it was written execution 'market_on_open' (not in paper_executor._EXEC_KINDS; silently dropped - U1/W1/Y1). Rewritten with the valid verb 'market' per UT-3; supersedes the 09-29 CRM card. Z3 hard leg (< 228.98) fired 09-28 and held 09-29; L2 second leg absent (12wk 272.53 > close) but Z3 governs. Realized -vs 257.66 cost. Reprice if the open gaps >1.5% (L8). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 456.94 | SELL 30% | 456.94 | 435.93 | 451.14 (-1.3%) | 437.59 (-4.2%) | 506.66 (+10.9%) | TSMC is profit-armed (1.8 ATR above cost, 90% of its 12-week target) and its signal flipped to an overbought-reversal AVOID with conviction collapsing, so we bank 30% and let the rest ride on the raised stop; demand news remains strong. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 1.80 >= 1.0, X2 material) + tick (b) conviction -24; 1 tick -> profit_take_1 30% x = 19. RE-FIRE of the 2026-09-29 SELL card that was dropped for the invalid 'market_on_open' verb (U1/W1/Y1); now 'market'; supersedes it. MoS -14.59 tier bump suppressed by G2 (12wk 506.66 >> DCF 45.50). Residual 44 on stop 435.93 (Y5: prior 435.93 vs chandelier 435.91; scan stop 477.97 is a short-side level, unusable). Further tick on the residual -> 50%. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 539.59 | HOLD | 539.59 | 517.26 | 547.78 (+1.5%) | 566.89 (+5.1%) | 753.32 (+39.6%) | Dell eased to 539.59 and conviction slipped to 57, but it is 12.9% above cost, 4.3% above its stop and the 12-week view is strongly positive, so we hold. OPERATIONAL: HOLD, Gain_ATR 2.31 (arms at 3.0). Stop 517.26 held (scan 500.28 / chandelier 486.11 looser). Decisive close < 517.26 WITH 12wk < close -> exit (L2). |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 186.97 | HOLD | 186.97 | 181.06 | 186.76 (-0.1%) | 186.26 (-0.4%) | 248.27 (+32.8%) | Palantir is flat at 186.97 with a steady hold signal and a positive 12-week view, so we hold on the existing stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD 64 x3, Gain_ATR 1.18, not armed. Stop 181.06 held. Decisive close < 181.06 -> trim 30% (181). |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1065.08 | HOLD | 1065.08 | 998.56 | 1090.23 (+2.4%) | 1148.92 (+7.9%) | 1328.44 (+24.7%) | Micron reports fiscal Q4 after Wednesday's close with guidance for record revenue, so we hold through the event with no adds and no pre-trim. OPERATIONAL: HOLD 61, catalyst hold (overlay rule); L6 no post-print gap-chase. Stop 998.56 held (scan 1044.12 is <1 ATR below close; chandelier 981.24 looser). · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 329.40 | HOLD | 329.40 | 328.21 | 333.51 (+1.2%) | 343.09 (+4.2%) | 359.26 (+9.1%) | Apple recovered to a hold of but closed at 329.40, just 0.4% above its stop, so we hold on a tight numeric trigger rather than sell a name whose 12-week view is still positive. OPERATIONAL: NT 0 -> HOLD 63. PROFIT_ARMED inert (Gain_ATR -0.25, UT-9). Z3 armed trigger: close < 328.21 for 2 sessions -> re-evaluate/trim 30% (36); hard leg close < 321.36 (1 ATR) -> exit 120. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1729.76 | HOLD | 1729.76 | 1589.90 | 1786.93 (+3.3%) | 1920.33 (+11.0%) | 2101.17 (+21.5%) | Sandisk firmed to 1729.76 with conviction back to 61; it is 8.8% above its stop and Micron's results are the next read-through, so we hold. OPERATIONAL: HOLD, -6.3% vs fill. Stop 1589.90 held. Close < 1589.90 with 12wk < close -> exit 21. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 227.21 | HOLD | 227.21 | 218.10 | 230.55 (+1.5%) | 238.35 (+4.9%) | 244.61 (+7.7%) | Nvidia is essentially at cost with a hold signal and a positive outlook, so we hold on the existing stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD. PROFIT_ARMED immaterial (Gain_ATR 0.07 < 1.0, X2). Stop 218.10 held. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 973.49 | NO ACTION | 973.49 | 934.51 | 1010.03 (+3.8%) | 1095.29 (+12.5%) | 1136.44 (+16.7%) | Lumentum printed a strong buy of 86 and clears the conviction floor even after the valuation haircut, but it fails the quality screen, which blocks new entries. OPERATIONAL: WATCH 61 -> SB 86, Buy_Rank 1; val_adj -10 (MoS -7.29), bias +3 (Z5 sign held) -> adj 79; Quality_Pass False (F-Score 5). Gate-blocked counterfactual. |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 293.67 | NO ACTION | 293.67 | 282.70 | 306.83 (+4.5%) | 337.55 (+14.9%) | 344.63 (+17.4%) | Arm is the only buy that passes the quality screen, but after the valuation haircut its adjusted conviction of 61 is under the 65 floor. OPERATIONAL: NT 0 -> WATCH -> B 68, Buy_Rank 3; val_adj -10 (MoS -32.9) +. Near-miss counterfactual. |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 508.96 | NO ACTION | 508.96 | 502.40 | 516.74 (+1.5%) | 534.88 (+5.1%) | 591.41 (+16.2%) | Microsoft holds a buy of 69 but sits under the floor after the valuation haircut and fails the quality screen. OPERATIONAL: B 69 x2, Buy_Rank 2; adj; Quality_Pass False. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
47 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.125 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.