Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 541.74 | HOLD | 541.74 | 517.26 | 557.14 (+2.8%) | 593.06 (+9.5%) | 731.91 (+35.1%) | Dell firmed to 541.74 and its conviction stopped fading. It is 13.4% above cost and 4.7% above its stop, and the 12-week view is strongly positive, so we hold on the stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD ->. Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.49 < 3.0, T12 74), so Y6 makes the ticks inert. Stop 517.26 held: the scan's 520.20 is only 0.84 ATR below the close, and the chandelier at 490.42 is looser. Exit only on a decisive close < 517.26 WITH 12wk < close (L2/T1). |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 190.04 | HOLD | 190.04 | 181.06 | 193.18 (+1.7%) | 200.52 (+5.5%) | 250.09 (+31.6%) | Palantir rose 1.6% to 190.04, 5.3% above cost, on a steady HOLD 61. The trend and the 12-week view are intact. OPERATIONAL: stop 181.06 held (the scan's 186.60 is < 1 ATR below; the chandelier at 179.56 is looser). A decisive close < 181.06 -> trim 30% (181). |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1097.39 | HOLD | 1097.39 | 1022.44 | 1183.89 (+7.9%) | 1385.73 (+26.3%) | 1382.58 (+26.0%) | Micron closed 1097.39 (+3.0%) after its beat and raise, and conviction jumped to 96. We hold the winner and lift the stop to the scan's 1022.44 rather than chase an add into the post-print gap. OPERATIONAL: RSI_DIV prints, but the position is not armed (Gain_ATR 2.39, T12 79), so it is not a profit-take, and MoS -1.46 > -3 means no valuation elevate (G1 also applies at conv 96). Y5 stop 998.56 -> 1022.44 (the scan stop is 1.65 ATR below the close, tighter than the 1006.57 chandelier). L6: no gap-chase add. Arms at Gain_ATR >= 3.0. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 330.32 | HOLD | 330.32 | 328.21 | 334.78 (+1.4%) | 345.20 (+4.5%) | 353.28 (+7.0%) | Apple slipped 0.8% to 330.32, about break-even, and conviction eased to 52. The close is still above the 328.21 stop, so the Z3 trim trigger has not started counting. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED comes only from T12 93.5 on a -0.24% position, which is immaterial (X2), so no profit-take. Conviction (-17) is below the 20-pt tick, and that tick would be inert anyway. Z3: a close < 328.21 for 2 sessions -> trim 36; hard leg: a close < 321.36 -> exit 120. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1787.69 | HOLD | 1787.69 | 1616.83 | 1838.95 (+2.9%) | 1958.55 (+9.6%) | 2178.89 (+21.9%) | SanDisk rose 2.7% to 1787.69, and conviction rose for a second session to 86. That is still 3.2% under cost, but the trend is repairing, so we hold and raise the stop. OPERATIONAL: Y5 stop 1589.90 -> 1616.83 (2.0x ATR 85.43 off the close; the scan's 1708.00 is < 1 ATR below). A close < 1616.83 with 12wk < close -> exit 21. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 459.20 | HOLD | 459.20 | 440.72 | n/a | n/a | 514.96 (+12.1%) | TSMC edged up to 459.20, but the scan dropped to NO TRADE (consensus conflict). The residual is not armed, so we hold and tighten the trail rather than sell on a single print. OPERATIONAL: HOLD 70 -> NO TRADE 0 (1st print; a deteriorating signal). Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.29, T12 89.17), so tick (d) is inert (Y6). Y5 stop 436.58 -> 440.72. TSMC Sept revenue 10-09; Q3 results 10-15. Re-arm (Gain_ATR >= 3 or T12 >= 90) + a 2nd NO TRADE -> 50% tier. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 230.86 | HOLD | 230.86 | 220.44 | 233.99 (+1.4%) | 241.29 (+4.5%) | 251.34 (+8.9%) | Nvidia rose 1.1% to 230.86, and conviction firmed to 85. The profit-take arm is immaterial on a +1.8% gain, so we hold and lift the stop. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED (T12 91.85) + RSI_DIV, but Gain_ATR is only 0.78 / +1.79%, which is not a material gain (X2), so no trim. G1: conv 85 on the uptrend. Y5 stop 218.10 -> 220.44 (chandelier; the scan's 220.43 is valid). |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1808.49 | HOLD | 1808.49 | 1736.90 | 1834.55 (+1.4%) | 1895.35 (+4.8%) | 1885.38 (+4.3%) | ASML filled at 1798.77 and closed 1808.49 (+0.5% vs the fill). The signal cooled from BUY 73 to WATCH 61 on day one, which is not a sell; we hold on the 1736.90 stop into the 10-14 Q3 print window. OPERATIONAL: filled 10-02 open per the 10-01 card (txn ustech-20261002-0001). The scan ran before the fill (Held N). The stop is unchanged: the scan's 1786.78 is < 1 ATR below, and the 1721.63 chandelier is looser. Re-evaluate at the 10-13 EOD; no adds into the print (L6). |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 1045.78 | NO ACTION | 1029.60 | 845.45 | 1151.42 (+11.8%) | 1397.90 (+35.8%) | 1302.65 (+26.5%) | Lumentum broke out to a 52-week high (STRONG BUY 90, Buy_Rank 1, +10.7% on the day), but it fails the quality screen and is priced far beyond its value anchor, so it is a counterfactual, not a buy. OPERATIONAL: B 68 -> SB 90; adj 80 (val -10, BreakoutUp_52W cell report-only); Quality_Pass False (F5). Buy-stop 1029.60 is below the 1045.78 close. Gate-blocked #1 for the 6th consecutive session. · news |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 512.80 | NO ACTION | 512.80 | 506.72 | 520.10 (+1.4%) | 537.14 (+4.7%) | 596.24 (+16.3%) | Microsoft strengthened for a second session to BUY 84 (Buy_Rank 2) and clears the floor after the haircut, but it fails the quality screen, which blocks new entries. OPERATIONAL: B -> 84; adj 78; Quality_Pass False (F6). Gate-blocked counterfactual. |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 292.34 | NO ACTION | 292.34 | 283.36 | 303.12 (+3.7%) | 328.27 (+12.3%) | 333.82 (+14.2%) | Arm re-printed BUY 66 and passes the quality screen, but its deep valuation haircut (MoS -28.5) leaves the adjusted conviction at 59, below the 65 floor. OPERATIONAL: B 68 -> W 54 -> B 66 flip-flop (not stable); adj 59 < 65. Floor near-miss counterfactual. |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | 319.19 | NO ACTION | 319.19 | 286.42 | 332.24 (+4.1%) | 362.68 (+13.6%) | 285.93 (-10.4%) | Coherent jumped from NO TRADE to BUY 77, but it fails the quality screen, and its own 12-week view (285.93) sits below the entry (319.19), so it is not an acquire on two counts. OPERATIONAL: NT 0 x3 -> B (fresh, unconfirmed); Quality_Pass False; U2 fails (12wk -10.4% vs entry). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
50 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.070 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.