Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 578.96 | SELL 30% | 578.96 | 527.46 | 590.18 (+1.9%) | 616.35 (+6.5%) | 798.95 (+38.0%) | Dell is the book's largest winner (+21% on cost, a third of equity) and its conviction just fell 20 points in one session to 49, the deterioration tick that turns an armed profit into a mandatory 30% trim; UBS argues the near-doubling has run its course. We bank part of the gain and trail the rest. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 3.93, PROFIT_ARMED) + tick (b) conv (-20, prior row HOLD); (a) none, (c) 12wk 798.95 alive, (d) none -> 1 tick -> profit_take_1 30% = 0.30 x = 191. MoS -2.49 (> -3) -> no tier bump. G1 n/a (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, not breakout/momentum). FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell cell -8 (n=9) cited: it is why the trim stays at the minimum tier, never larger. Market at the 10-08 open; reprice if the open gaps >1.5% vs 578.96. Remaining 445 trail to 527.46 (2.0xATR chandelier = scan stop). · news |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 194.12 | ADD — QUEUED @182.01 | 182.01 | 171.60 | 184.33 (+1.3%) | 189.76 (+4.3%) | 254.09 (+39.6%) | Palantir's conviction has climbed for four straight sessions to a 96 STRONG BUY - ADD on the pullback-to-VWAP setup, the book's preferred entry style. The model wants to buy 6% lower, so we queue a half-size add at its entry rather than chase a stretched price. OPERATIONAL: SBA 96 PullbackBuy_VWAP rank 1 (H -> 84 -> SBA 96); MoS -13.98 -> val_adj -10, size x0.5; PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only (n=1) -> bias 0; adj 86. ED -2.33 -> no-chase QUEUE (L1/UT-6). x 112.34% = 678 x 0.5 = x 182.01 = UT-10 passes (not underwater +7.6%, ATR 5.20 falling from 5.36). RSI_DIV on the row (unarmed, Gain_ATR 2.63) noted. Card stop 171.60 (engine); held-tranche trigger 181.35 kept (not raised to the 183.71 chandelier so the trail does not sit above the queued limit). Expires 10-13. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1088.00 | HOLD | 1088.00 | 1022.44 | 1103.89 (+1.5%) | 1140.96 (+4.9%) | 1333.05 (+22.5%) | H 61 -> H 76 (+15), +4.06% to 1088.00; Gain_ATR 2.20 unarmed. Stop 1022.44 held (scan 1011.42 and chandelier 998.07 looser). Samsung prelim 10-08 pre-open; TSMC Sept revenue 10-09. |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1804.96 | HOLD | 1804.96 | 1790.34 | 1821.02 (+0.9%) | 1858.49 (+3.0%) | 1947.85 (+7.9%) | H 61 flat, -1.59% to 1804.96; close only 0.32 ATR above the 1790.34 stop. PROFIT_ARMED immaterial (Gain_ATR 0.14, X2/Z2). Q3 10-14: re-evaluate at the 10-13 EOD; no adds into the print. |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 294.37 | HOLD | 294.37 | 279.20 | 302.12 (+2.6%) | 320.19 (+8.8%) | 341.90 (+16.1%) | H 59 -> H 54, -2.71% to 294.37; underwater (Gain_ATR -0.87), inert (Y6/UT-9). Re-test trigger (WATCH/NO TRADE print + close < 293.95) not met: HOLD, close 294.37. Stop 279.20 held. |
| AAPL | Apple | 336.67 | HOLD | 336.67 | 328.21 | 338.69 (+0.6%) | 343.40 (+2.0%) | 357.76 (+6.3%) | H 57 -> H 75, +0.91% to 336.67. PROFIT_ARMED immaterial (Gain_ATR 0.95 < 1.0, X2; T12 94.1 saturation Z2). Z3: close < 328.21 for 2 sessions -> trim 30% (36); hard leg < 321.36 -> exit 120. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1692.42 | HOLD | 1692.42 | 1616.83 | 1726.45 (+2.0%) | 1805.85 (+6.7%) | 1904.12 (+12.5%) | H 42 -> H 56, +1.92% to 1692.42; underwater (Gain_ATR -1.82). Stop 1616.83 (0.90 ATR). L2: close < 1616.83 with 12wk < close -> exit 21. Samsung prelim 10-08. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 472.20 | HOLD | 472.20 | 463.12 | 482.23 (+2.1%) | 505.63 (+7.1%) | 563.44 (+19.3%) | H 55 -> NO TRADE (cv 0, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), -2.09% to 472.20. Armed (Gain_ATR 3.36). A move INTO NO TRADE is counted as print for tick (d), not as a tick-(b) collapse (unattended assumption; otherwise (d) would be redundant). Not fired. A 2nd consecutive NO TRADE (or any other tick) -> trim 30% (13). Stop 463.12 held (chandelier 451.83 looser). TSMC Sept revenue 10-09, Q3 10-15. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 237.47 | HOLD | 237.47 | 228.35 | 240.43 (+1.2%) | 247.33 (+4.2%) | 272.27 (+14.7%) | H 73 -> H 56 (-17), -0.74% to 237.47; unarmed (Gain_ATR 1.56). Stop 228.35 held (scan 235.01 is 0.5 ATR; chandelier 227.61 looser). |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 529.76 | NO ACTION | 529.76 | 524.28 | 536.16 (+1.2%) | 551.10 (+4.0%) | 632.71 (+19.4%) | Microsoft's BUY eased to 68 and it still fails the quality screen; after valuation it would sit below the floor anyway. OPERATIONAL: SB 88 -> B 68 (-20) FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; MoS -1.81 -> val_adj -9; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +4 (2nd consecutive positive read, Z5) -> adj 63. Quality gate (F-Score 6), 10th session. |
| META | Meta Platforms | 721.31 | NO ACTION | 716.07 | 695.69 | 725.16 (+1.3%) | 746.38 (+4.2%) | 945.79 (+32.1%) | Meta's pullback BUY slipped to 64; it fails the quality screen and sits below the floor after valuation. OPERATIONAL: B; MoS -1.70 -> val_adj -8; adj 56. Quality gate (F-Score 5). |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 342.97 | NO ACTION | 340.51 | 325.92 | 347.02 (+1.9%) | 362.20 (+6.4%) | 462.28 (+35.8%) | Cloudflare re-printed a pullback BUY at 64 but fails the quality screen and is priced far above intrinsic value. OPERATIONAL: W 48 -> B 64; MoS -10.77 -> val_adj -10; adj 54. Quality gate (F-Score 4). |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 332.85 | NO ACTION | 334.32 | 322.63 | 338.07 (+1.1%) | 346.83 (+3.7%) | 388.33 (+16.2%) | Snowflake's pullback BUY eased to 64; it fails the quality screen and is below the floor after valuation. OPERATIONAL: B; MoS -1.96 -> val_adj -10; adj 54. Quality gate (F-Score 5). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
52 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.070 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.