Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 198.78 | ADD — QUEUED @195.02 | 195.02 | 186.32 | 204.52 (+4.9%) | 226.68 (+16.2%) | 263.72 (+35.2%) | Palantir rose on a day the AI-chip complex sold off, after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to Buy with a target, and the model still rates it a STRONG BUY - ADD at 90. It closed 0.6 ATR above the model's entry, so we re-queue the half-size add at that live entry instead of chasing. OPERATIONAL: REPRICES the unfilled 10-08 queue @182.01 (never reached; low stayed far above) to the live Entry_Price 195.02 per the provenance rule; the old limit is superseded, expiry moves to 10-14 (anchor + 3 sessions). SBA 96 -> SBA 90, signal family switched PullbackBuy_VWAP -> BreakoutUp_20D (rank 2); BreakoutUp_20D|buy report-only n=2 (0/2 hit_1w) -> bias 0, L1/UT-12 discount noted (it still clears the floor at 80). MoS -14.92 -> val_adj -10, size x0.5: x 112.34% = 678 x 0.5 = x 195.02 =. ED -0.60 -> no-chase queue (UT-6). RSI 69.97 (< 75). UT-10: ATR 5.20 -> 6.23 is rising, but PLTR is breaking out on a down day for semis (+2.40%), not falling with a sector reset, and the held lot is +10.2% on cost -> passes. Position stop raised 181.35 -> 186.32 (Y5: 2.0xATR chandelier wins over scan 179.20); it sits 8.70 below the limit, so no trail/queue conflict. Gain_ATR 2.95 (just short of arming). · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 574.55 | HOLD | 574.55 | 527.46 | 589.49 (+2.6%) | 624.36 (+8.7%) | 792.16 (+37.9%) | H 49 -> H 61; the 191-share trim FILLED @568.80 at the 10-08 open (gap -1.75% vs 578.96 ref; executor filled anyway). Still PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.88) but no tick: (a) none, (b) conv +12, (c) 12wk 792.16 = 1.38x close, (d) none -> armed-not-fired -> trail. Y5 candidates: prior 527.46, scan 524.74, chandelier 524.74 -> 527.46 held (1.89 ATR cushion). Next tick -> 30% tier of (134); 2+ ticks -> 50% (223). |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1035.84 | HOLD | 1035.84 | 1022.44 | 1064.19 (+2.7%) | 1130.35 (+9.1%) | 1237.39 (+19.5%) | H 76 -> H 61 (-15), -4.80% to 1035.84 in the AI-chip selloff (FT OpenAI-revenue report, SK Hynix slump). Unarmed (Gain_ATR 0.99). Stop 1022.44 held; cushion only 0.28 ATR. Not breached. If breached with 12wk still positive -> Z3 trigger (2nd close below -> trim 30% = 23; close < 975.19 -> exit). · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1769.79 | HOLD | 1769.79 | 1790.34⚠ | 1801.29 (+1.8%) | 1874.78 (+5.9%) | 1871.12 (+5.7%) | STOP BREACH 0.39 ATR (1769.79 vs 1790.34), -1.95%; L2 second leg ABSENT (12wk 1871.12 = +5.7%), no live Exit_Warning (PROFIT_ARMED inert, Gain_ATR -0.55, UT-9). Q3 report 10-14 is <=5 sessions -> catalyst-aware hold. Z3 ARMED TRIGGER: any close < 1737.85 (stop - 1.0 ATR) before the print -> SELL 30% (9) next open; the 2-session count is suspended through the 10-14 print, re-evaluate at the 10-14 EOD. Stop 1790.34 not lowered (U5). Quality_Pass now False (no adds). · news |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 275.29 | HOLD | 275.29 | 279.20⚠ | n/a | n/a | 303.15 (+10.1%) | STOP BREACH 0.23 ATR (275.29 vs 279.20), -6.48% on the sector selloff plus ARM-specific supply-execution questions; NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), print 1. The 10-06 re-test trigger (WATCH/NT print + close < 293.95) FIRED -> re-tested: underwater (Gain_ATR -1.90, PROFIT_ARMED inert UT-9), L2 second leg ABSENT (12wk 303.15 = +10.1%) -> no L2 exit (T1). Y2: <0.25 ATR graze is a news question; news = concern (not a positive catalyst). Z3 ARMED TRIGGER: a 2nd consecutive close < 279.20 OR a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE print -> SELL 30% (52) next open; any close < 262.33 (stop - 1.0 ATR) -> SELL ALL next open. Valuation row now NA (prior MoS -28.5). · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 340.42 | HOLD | 340.42 | 328.80 | 343.91 (+1.0%) | 352.04 (+3.4%) | 364.79 (+7.2%) | H 75 flat, +1.11% to 340.42. PROFIT_ARMED with Gain_ATR 1.60 (X2 material) but no tick: (a) none, (b) flat, (c) 12wk 364.79 > 1.02x close, (d) none -> armed-not-fired -> trail raise 328.21 -> 328.80 (scan = 2.0xATR chandelier, 2.0 ATR below close). Z3: close < 328.80 for 2 sessions -> trim 30% (36); hard leg < 322.40 -> exit 120. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1609.46 | HOLD | 1609.46 | 1616.83⚠ | 1662.92 (+3.3%) | 1787.65 (+11.1%) | 1738.27 (+8.0%) | STOP BREACH 0.08 ATR graze (1609.46 vs 1616.83), -4.90% with memory peers (SK Hynix/MU) in the AI-chip selloff; H 56 -> H 49. Underwater (Gain_ATR -2.66; PROFIT_ARMED inert UT-9). L2 second leg ABSENT (12wk 1738.27 = +8.0%) -> no exit (T1/Y2). Z3 ARMED TRIGGER: 2nd consecutive close < 1616.83 -> SELL 30% (6) next open; any close < 1527.74 (stop - 1.0 ATR) -> SELL ALL 21. Standing L2: close < stop with 12wk < close -> exit 21. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 457.99 | HOLD | 457.99 | 463.12⚠ | 460.11 (+0.5%) | 465.07 (+1.5%) | 534.18 (+16.6%) | STOP BREACH 0.43 ATR (457.99 vs 463.12), -3.01%; NO TRADE -> HOLD 53 (the tick-(d) NT count resets). No longer armed (Gain_ATR 1.66 < 3.0 with ATR up to 12.01, no PROFIT_ARMED). L2 second leg ABSENT (12wk 534.18 = +16.6%). News confirms-hold: Sept revenue NT9bn (+54.6% y/y), record Q3. Q3 results 10-15 (<=5 sessions) -> catalyst-aware hold. Z3 ARMED TRIGGER: any close < 451.11 (stop - 1.0 ATR) -> SELL 30% (13) next open; 2-session count suspended through the 10-15 print, re-evaluate at the 10-15 EOD. Stop 463.12 not lowered (U5). · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 230.48 | HOLD | 230.48 | 228.35 | 233.76 (+1.4%) | 241.42 (+4.7%) | 259.69 (+12.7%) | H 56 -> H 63, -2.94% to 230.48 in the AI-chip selloff; unarmed (Gain_ATR 0.12). Stop 228.35 held (scan 227.75, chandelier 219.54 looser); cushion 0.39 ATR. If breached with 12wk positive -> Z3 (2nd close below -> trim 30% =; close < 222.88 -> exit). · news |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 343.40 | NO ACTION | 343.40 | 332.28 | 350.49 (+2.1%) | 367.02 (+6.9%) | 403.12 (+17.4%) | Snowflake jumped to the scan's #1 STRONG BUY at 91 (+3.17% on Citi/Stifel target raises), but it fails the quality screen, which blocks new entries. OPERATIONAL: B 64 -> SB 91; MoS -1.99 -> val_adj -10; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +4 -> adj 85 (would clear). Quality gate (F-Score 5): the costliest block of the run; ledgered as a counterfactual. · news |
| SAP | SAP AE | 212.40 | NO ACTION | 212.40 | 205.91 | 215.49 (+1.5%) | 222.71 (+4.9%) | 228.93 (+7.8%) | SAP flipped from AVOID to a fresh BUY 75 but fails the quality screen. OPERATIONAL: AV 59 -> B 75 (1st print, not stable); MoS -1.35 -> val_adj -7; +4 cell -> adj 72. Quality gate (Quality_Pass False, F-Score 8). |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 522.61 | NO ACTION | 508.23 | 496.50 | 513.46 (+1.0%) | 525.68 (+3.4%) | 620.07 (+22.0%) | Microsoft's BUY firmed to 73 but it still fails the quality screen and sits just under the floor after valuation. OPERATIONAL: B 68 -> B 73 PullbackBuy_VWAP (report-only); MoS -1.86 -> val_adj -9; adj 64. Quality gate (F-Score 6), 11th session. |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 620.68 | NO ACTION | 589.84 | 565.73 | 600.59 (+1.8%) | 625.67 (+6.1%) | 884.47 (+50.0%) | AMD passes the quality screen and re-printed a pullback BUY at 71, but it is priced far above intrinsic value and falls below the floor. OPERATIONAL: NT 0 -> B (unstable: NT the prior print); MoS -13.56 -> val_adj -10; adj 61 < 65. Extended ED -1.28. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 1048.60 | NO ACTION | 969.66 | 904.22 | 998.84 (+3.0%) | 1066.94 (+10.0%) | 1473.34 (+51.9%) | Lumentum re-printed a pullback BUY at but fails the quality screen and sits below the floor after valuation. OPERATIONAL: NT 0 -> B; MoS -8.28 -> val_adj -10; adj 61. Quality gate (F-Score 5). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
53 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.070 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.